Only Four Cities Around the Globe Expected to See Prime Price Growth in 2020

The coronavirus pandemic is wreaking economic havoc around the world—and the luxury real estate market is no exception.

Lisbon, Monaco, Vienna and Shanghai are the only four major prime residential markets projected to see price growth throughout the remainder of 2020, though at a low level defined as between 0.1% to 5%, according to a report Tuesday from Knight Frank.

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The estate agency and property consultants analyzed prime prices in 20 cities across the globe based on projections for demand and supply, the impact of coronavirus in each different market and the varying government stimulus measures announced, but it noted that unprecedented uncertainty made the forecasts challenging.

“There were positive signs in several markets globally that prime prices would rise throughout 2020, but unsurprisingly, Covid-19 has put a halt to that,” Liam Bailey, global head of research at Knight Frank, said in the report. “Of the 20 cities Knight Frank has analyzed, 16 of these will see prime price declines in 2020, with only a handful avoiding a fall into negative territory—either because of historic supply shortages or because transactions were able to continue during lockdown and these measures are already being eased.”

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The cities predicted to be hit by the largest price falls, defined as a drop of 5% or more, are Buenos Aires, Mumbai, Hong Kong, Singapore and Vancouver.

With the exception of Singapore, the markets are either emerging or locales that were already seeing weak price growth at the end of 2019, according to Knight Frank

Knight Frank had predicted that prime prices in Singapore would rise 3% throughout 2020, but the fall-out of Covid-19 and the length of time the Singapore market has been affected changed the projection.

Looking ahead, Knight Frank expects a slight rebound in most markets in 2021, led by London and Lisbon.

“In Lisbon, Portugal’s handling of the crisis combined with strengthening demand and limited prime supply, will underpin price growth,” Kate Everett-Allen, head of international residential research at Knight Frank, said in the report. “In London’s case, the political certainty provided by last December’s general election boosted housing market confidence during January and February. With prices in some areas down as much as 25% over the last five years, we expect a sharp uptick in 2021.”